The Model Picker: Which Local Model for Which Job
Purpose. End model-selection paralysis. Three rules, one table, one drill — and you'll pick correctly for any task on any hardware, including models released after this manual was printed.
Section 1 — The three rules
1-1.Rule 1: Fit beats size. A model that fits fully in VRAM/unified memory at a moderate quant will outperform a "better" model that spills to system RAM or disk — because the second one is unusably slow. The fit rule at Q4: ~0.6–0.7 GB per billion parameters, plus 1–4+ GB for context. An 8B model wants ~6 GB; 32B wants ~20 GB; 70B wants ~40+ GB.
1-2.Rule 2: Specialists beat generalists at equal size. A 7B coding-tuned model writes better code than a 7B generalist; a reasoning-distilled model solves harder problems than its base. When a task category dominates your usage, issue the specialist.
1-3.Rule 3: Newest-within-class usually wins. Open models improve fast; a current 12B routinely matches last year's 30B. When a new release lands, don't ask "is it good?" — ask "what class is it, does it fit, does it beat my incumbent on my drill (§4)?" That procedure outlives any table, including this one.
Section 2 — The picker table
Model names below are the reliable picks as of this revision — the classes and sizes are the durable knowledge. Ollama tags shown.
| Job | ~8 GB (entry) | ~16 GB (standard) | ~24–32 GB (heavy) | ~64 GB+ (max) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General assistant chat, drafting, summaries | llama3.2:3b · gemma3:4b | qwen3:8b · gemma3:12b | gemma3:27b · qwen3:32b | llama3.3:70b |
| Coding completion, refactors, review | qwen2.5-coder:3b | qwen2.5-coder:7b | qwen2.5-coder:32b · agent-trained coders (e.g. devstral) | 32B coder at Q8, or 70B general |
| Agents / tool use loops, routing, function calls | qwen3:4b | qwen3:8b · llama3.1:8b | qwen3:32b · mistral-small | llama3.3:70b |
| Hard reasoning math, multi-step logic | — (be realistic) | deepseek-r1:8b | deepseek-r1:32b · qwen3:32b (thinking) | deepseek-r1:70b |
| Fast pipeline steps classify, extract, route | qwen3:0.6b–1.7b | llama3.2:3b | same — small is correct here | same |
| Vision images, screenshots, docs | gemma3:4b | gemma3:12b · llama3.2-vision | gemma3:27b | gemma3:27b at Q8 |
2-1.Reading the table. Columns are memory available to the model — on PCs that's GPU VRAM; on Apple Silicon it's unified memory minus ~6–8 GB for the OS (details: FM-02 §3). The "fast pipeline steps" row is the most under-used: multi-model setups that route easy calls to a 1–3B model and hard calls upward are how professionals make local feel fast (and how they cut cloud bills — FM-04 §3-2).
Section 3 — Quantization doctrine
3-1. Quantization compresses model weights to fewer bits so bigger models fit in less memory, trading a little quality for a lot of capacity. The field settings:
| Quant | Doctrine |
|---|---|
| Q4_K_M | The default. Best quality-per-GB for nearly all models and jobs. Ollama's standard tags are usually this. When in doubt, this. |
| Q8 / FP16 | Spend memory on it only when you have surplus after fitting the model class you want. A bigger model at Q4 usually beats a smaller one at Q8. |
| Q2–Q3 | Emergency rations. Noticeable degradation — and the first casualty is precision: exact formats, numbers, and agent tool-call arguments. Never for agents. |
Section 4 — The 10-minute evaluation drill
4-1. Leaderboards don't run your workload. Build a personal drill once, reuse it forever:
- Collect 5 real tasks from your actual work — a function you needed written, a doc you needed summarized, an email to draft, a tool-call scenario, one task that previously failed.
- Freeze them in a file with what "good" looks like for each. This is your golden set.
- Run every candidate model against all 5 (
ollama run <model> < task.txt). Score pass/fail, note speed. - Issue the winner. Re-run the drill whenever a new release tempts you. Ten minutes, evidence, done.
Section 5 — FAQ
- How much VRAM does a model need?
- At Q4: ~0.6–0.7 GB per billion parameters plus 1–4+ GB for context. 8B → ~6 GB; 32B → ~20 GB; 70B → ~40+ GB.
- What quantization should I use?
- Q4_K_M unless you have a measured reason otherwise. Avoid Q2–Q3 for agents and anything needing precision.
- Best local coding model?
- The coding specialist that fits your memory class — at 24 GB-class hardware, a 32B coder is the workhorse; at 16 GB, a 7B coder.
- The table will go stale. Then what?
- The rules won't: fit beats size, specialist beats generalist, newest-within-class wins — verified by your own drill. That's the manual's real payload. Updated picks ship in the weekly dispatch.
Set up the machine: FM-02. Put the model in an agent loop: FM-01. Decide what runs local vs cloud: FM-04.
Get the Field Kit (includes the picker as a printable sheet)